The Markets
Higher rates are doing what they’re supposed to do. Last week, Federal Reserve officials spoke about keeping the federal funds rate higher until it becomes clear that inflation will reach the Fed’s two percent target rate. While people typically don’t mind earning more interest on their saving and investment accounts, higher rates are painful for consumers. That pain is why higher rates help lower inflation. They discourage borrowing and cause people to buy fewer goods. Lower demand for goods and services should lead to lower inflation, reported Trina Paul of CNBC. So far, the biggest fly in the inflation-reduction ointment is housing. Diccon Hyatt of Investopedia explained: “In the first two decades of the 21st century, the U.S. built 5.5 million fewer homes than were needed, the National Association of Realtors estimated in a 2021 report…The effects of that housing shortage are rippling through the economy, most obviously in the form of soaring home prices…official inflation rates, which are designed to measure the cost of living, are highly sensitive to any changes in housing costs. Housing costs make up 45% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most widely watched measure of inflation.” May data show consumers are feeling discouraged. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 13 percent from April to May. “[The] decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months. This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, income, and education groups…They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment, and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead,” stated Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. While consumer sentiment dragged on markets, first quarter corporate earnings reports were stronger than expected, which lifted U.S. stocks. “With well over 80% of the S&P 500 having reported results, companies are on track to have increased earnings by 7.8%, well ahead of the April expectation of 5.1% growth,” reported a source cited by Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters. Declining sentiment caused U.S. stocks to stumble on Friday; however, major indices finished the week higher. Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week. The Markets
What will the Federal Reserve do? Uncertainty about the direction and timing of Fed rate cuts is causing stock markets in the United States to charge and retreat. U.S. stocks rallied for five consecutive months (anticipating rate cuts early in 2024) before retreating in April after higher-than-anticipated inflation suggested the Fed might delay any rate reductions. Markets retreated early last week on concerns the Fed might take a more hawkish tone following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – but it did not. Following the meeting, the FOMC release stated: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective…The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” While the Fed left its rate policy unchanged, it eased a bit using a different policy lever. “…[FOMC] policymakers gave a green light to slowing the pace at which the Fed is shrinking its Treasury holdings, which may modestly work against the rise in market interest rates,” reported Jed Graham of Investor’s Business Daily. Markets found the Fed’s moderate tone encouraging, and optimism expanded after the U.S. employment report suggested the labor market might be cooling off. “The indexes bounced back from early-week lows after the employment report revealed that the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected in April—but enough to indicate a still-growing economy. For now, that could help keep a lid on inflation, prevent the Federal Reserve from needing to raise rates again, and maybe even allow it to cut them,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. Major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher, according to Barron’s. The U.S. Treasury market rallied, too. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week. The Markets
The economy appears to be slowing down. Last week, many investors were focused on economic data. The Personal Consumption report offers information about Americans’ income and spending over the previous month. It includes one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The March report showed:
What does it all mean? “More spending is good for the U.S. economy, with consumption accounting for more than two-thirds of the country’s economic activity. But falling savings rates suggest consumers might need to extend themselves financially to keep the shopping going. Friday’s data add to other evidence—such as rising credit card balances and falling excess savings—that suggests, while still strong, the consumer-spending binge won’t continue forever,” explained Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s. Investors also had an eye on economic growth. The Fed has been raising rates to slow economic growth which, in turn, should help bring inflation lower. One way to measure economic growth is through gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced over a specific period. Last week, data showed that U.S. GDP growth slowed in 2024. After inflation, the U.S. economy grew by 1.6 percent in the first quarter. That’s down from 3.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Major U.S. stock indices moved higher last week, according to Barron’s. Yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries finished the week higher. However, yields moved lower on Friday after investors decided the Fed is likely to lower the federal funds rate at least once in 2024, reported Ye Xie of Bloomberg. The Markets
Investors have been recalibrating their expectations. There is a lot going on in the world that could affect the value of financial markets – wars, tensions between major powers, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices – just to name a few. Last week, it was Federal Reserve policy. The possibility that the Fed might keep rates higher for longer shook investors, reported Naomi Rovnick of Reuters. At a policy forum early in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the audience: “The performance of the U.S. economy over the past year has really been quite strong. We had growth of more than three percent last year as rebounding supply supported both robust growth and spending, and also employment alongside a considerable decline in inflation. More recent data show solid growth and continued strength in the labor market but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our two percent inflation goal…we’ll need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward two percent before it would be appropriate to ease policy.” With the federal funds rate likely to remain at its current level for longer than expected, markets reconsidered how that might affect economic growth and corporate earnings, reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. “Big investors are not rushing to change long-term holdings, but in a sign of things to come, stock market volatility is around a six-month peak as traders debate how high the U.S. rate…against which financial assets are valued will stay,” reported Rovnick. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved lower over the week as investors sold technology stocks on fears that first-quarter earnings reports might disappoint, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average moved lower, too, while yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher. The Markets
Inflation and geopolitics and earnings. Oh, my! It was a rough week for stock markets. “The S&P 500 closed 1.5% lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.6%. Every S&P 500 sector closed lower—and just about 40 stocks in the index finished the day with gains,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. A trio of issues caused investors to reassess their expectations for the year. Here’s what many were thinking about: Prices rising at home. Early last week, the Consumer Price Index showed prices had moved higher in March. Headline inflation was 3.5 percent year-over-year, up from 3.2 percent in February. Higher prices for gasoline and shelter were the primary drivers of the increase. Inflation, in tandem with strong economic data, dashed investors’ hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower rates soon, reported Augusta Saraiva and Matthew Boesler of Bloomberg. Tensions rising overseas. One of the drivers behind rising prices is geopolitics, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Oil markets have been responding to the possibility of escalating tensions in the Middle East, as well as the damage done by drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Equities moved lower and gold moved higher as investors sought so-called safe-haven investments, last week. Corporate earnings growth. Last week, banks began reporting on their performance during the first quarter of 2024. Some banks reported net interest income (the profit earned from lending money) that was lower than analysts anticipated. The gap in expectations was due, in part, to the fact that bank accountholders were seeking higher returns on their savings, reported Sridhar Natarajan of Bloomberg. Despite disappointment over bank’s interest income, earnings grew by 3.2% for the handful of S&P 500 companies that have already reported, according to John Butters at FactSet. By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indices were lower. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher over the week. Financial markets are likely to be volatile as investors adjust to U.S. economic strength and changing expectations for Fed rate cuts and geopolitical events. While market turbulence can be unsettling, price swings can create opportunities to invest in quality assets at attractive levels. The Markets
The bull charged from October 2023 through March 2024. Last week, it took a breather. Optimistic may be the best word to describe the first quarter of 2024. From the start of the year, investors were confident that an economic soft landing in the United States was possible. The U.S. stock market reflected investors’ conviction that:
Over the first quarter, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved 10.2 percent higher. “That’s only the fourth time since the start of the millennium [the S&P 500] has gained 8% or more in the first three months of the year…,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s. “Of the 16 times the S&P 500 has managed to rise 8% or more in the first quarter from 1950 through 2023, only once—in 1987, the year of the Black Monday crash—did the index lose ground in the rest of the year.” (While the historic data are interesting, past performance is no guarantee of future results.) The U.S. stock rally “showed yet again that under the right conditions equities can thrive amid considerable uncertainty,” wrote Economist Mohamed El-Erian. In a Bloomberg opinion piece, he explained that U.S. stocks have moved higher despite:
These issues carried less weight than other factors, El-Erian explained. “…the first quarter saw much broader investor adoption of the promise of generative artificial intelligence…This was supported by growing recognition of the innovative technology's potential to enhance productivity across many sectors and in a durable manner…From a top-down perspective, the rally's expansion…was fueled by a combination of US economic exceptionalism and the Federal Reserve's relatively dovish stance on monetary policy.” Early last week, the rally paused. The S&P 500 fell by more than two percent through Thursday. Some attributed the shift to hawkish comments from the President of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari. In an interview with Pensions & Investments, Kashkari commented, “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," reported Reuters. Other factors were at play, too. John Authers of Bloomberg pointed out that the market backpedaled after a jump in oil prices (which have the potential to push inflation higher), as well as rising tensions between the U.S. and Israel. On Friday, the market rebounded after a blowout employment report. Bloomberg Economics forecast a downshift in hiring that would result in fewer than 200,000 new jobs for March, reported Matthew Boesler. That forecast was off the mark. Employers added more than 300,000 new jobs during the month. Strong hiring pushed the unemployment rate lower even though more people were actively looking for work during the month. Despite Friday’s rebound, major U.S. stock indices finished the week lower, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. Yields on many longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week. The Markets
What do dieters have in common with the Federal Reserve? If you’ve ever dieted, you may be familiar with the weight-loss plateau. Many people experience steady progress. The bathroom scale moves lower week by week – until it doesn’t – and that can be discouraging. The Federal Reserve has been trying to reduce inflation, and it has had significant success. Its actions are credited with bringing headline inflation from a peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in February 2024, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Looking back over the last few months, it seems as though inflation hit a plateau (and, perhaps, indulged in a bit of holiday excess). September 2023: 3.7 percent October 2023: 3.2 percent November 2023: 3.1 percent December 2023: 3.4 percent January 2024: 3.1 percent February 2024: 3.2 percent However, the Fed is not discouraged. After inflation data was released last week, Chair Jerome Powell to comment, “The report that came out this morning is pretty much in-line with our expectations. Our hand is a steady hand in this. We’ve been saying all through last year and this year, we’re making progress…The economy is strong. We see very strong growth…That means we that don’t need to be in a hurry to cut [rates]. It means we can wait and become more confident that, in fact, inflation is coming down to two percent on a sustainable basis.” United States stock markets were unfazed by the inflation news and delivered a stellar performance for the first quarter. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index experienced 22 record closes during the first three months of the year, reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s. Major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher, and U.S. Treasury yields were mixed. Guidance Wealth will be closed Friday, March 29th to observe the Good Friday holiday
The Markets The central banks have spoken. No one expected the United States Federal Reserve to announce a rate change last week – and it didn’t. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the actions of other central banks led to new records being set in stock markets around the world, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. “…the world’s central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve…have all but green-lighted lower policy interest rates in coming months in the expectation that inflation will continue to make downward progress without triggering recessions. The Fed’s counterparts at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England similarly signaled lower rates ahead, while the Swiss National Bank made a surprise cut this past week…Meanwhile, major Latin American central banks, led by Brazil and Mexico, are well along in their rate cuts, having been much prompter in raising their rates to fight inflation starting in 2021, a year or more ahead of the Group of 10.” In the United States, a lower federal funds rate could be good news for consumers and businesses. So, how low could rates go? The Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows that Fed officials expect the federal funds rate to move lower over the next three years, and beyond, based on what they know today. Here’s the SEP year-by-year forecast:
When the fed funds rate moves lower, lending rates usually fall as well. So, consumers who buy a home or a car, apply for a home equity or business loan, or use a credit card over the next few years, could see lower interest rates. U.S. stocks moved higher last week, and U.S. Treasury yields fell as the bond market rallied. The Markets
Here’s the tea on stock markets and presidential elections. Last week, a slew of headlines mentioned stock market bubbles and frothy valuations. The implication was that markets might be headed lower because they’ve risen so high. Last Wednesday, Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters reported: “Some market participants believe the relentless U.S. stock rally is poised for a breather, even if it remains unclear whether equities are in a bubble or a strong bull run. The benchmark S&P 500…is up over 25% in the last five months, a phenomenon that has occurred just 10 times since the 1930s, according to BofA Global Research…the S&P has already made 16 record highs this year, the most in any first quarter since 1945, CFRA Research data showed.” By the end of last week, we’d seen 17 record highs for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index. If there is a market downturn this year, election sentiment is likely to be one of the reasons for the move. “Market moves during election years do tend to follow a similar pattern—declines leading up to early November, then a surge through year end once the winner is revealed.” While past performance does not guarantee future results, the S&P 500 has typically finished presidential election years higher, reported Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s. Despite the historic record, election rhetoric can make it difficult to remember that markets are efficient and adjust to changing risks. While election sentiment may sway stock markets over the shorter term, global economic growth, company fundamentals, central bank policies, and other factors, such as “the implications of the artificial intelligence [AI] boom on corporate earnings” are likely to matter more over the longer term, reported Jasinski. No matter how emotional the election becomes, remember that your portfolio was built to meet your financial goals. If your longer-term goals and risk tolerance have not changed, making significant portfolio changes because of worries about the election outcome is not a sound idea. That said, if you’re uneasy about the election and its potential effect on your savings and investments, please get in touch. We want to hear about your concerns and will help you identify potential solutions. Major U.S. stock indices finished last week with mixed results. The bond market retreated amid inflation pressures, and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher over the week. The Markets
The week got off to a good start... In testimony before House and Senate committees, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted that prices had been falling and unemployment rates remained quite low. As a result, he expected the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate in 2024. “I think we’re in the right place,” he said. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at two percent. When we do get that confidence—and we’re not far from it—it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession rather than normalizing policy as the economy gets back to normal.” After Powell’s comments, the likelihood of a June rate cut rose, and so did U.S. stock indices. The bond market rallied, too, with yields across all maturities of U.S. Treasuries dropping lower through Thursday. On Friday, a mixed bag of employment data arrived. It showed that:
The data suggested that the labor market was strong but cooling, and bolstered hopes that a soft landing might be ahead. While that was positive news, it was overshadowed by weakness in technology stocks. Sarah Hansen of Morningstar reported, “The stock market started 2024 with a blistering rally…But the relentless pace of gains has some watchers worried about soaring valuations on stock prices and frothy trading.” On Friday, major U.S. stock indices finished the week lower. However, U.S. Treasury bonds rallied as yields declined over the week. |
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